When Monday Night Football betting invades the Big Easy, the New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) better be prepared to contain one of the NFL's top second-year star running backs Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) or it's going to be a long night for Drew Brees when the teams meet at the Superdome.
Though New Orleans' defense has allowed 1,488 total yards of offense through its first four games, which is the fifth-highest in the NFL, they have been better against the run, limiting ball carriers to 122.8 per game.
The Saints will have the daunting task of stopping Peterson, who ranks second in the league with 420 yards (105.0 pg) on 83 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with three touchdowns. Peterson rushed 18 times for 80 yards in a 30-17 loss at Tennessee on Sunday, the second straight game he was held under 100 yards. New Orleans desperately needs to hold him below 100 yards for a third consecutive game to have a shot.
In order to do so, they'll have to do it down a starter. New Orleans will be short-handed on the defensive line, as rookie tackle Sedrick Ellis is out two to four weeks with a right knee injury. Ellis, picked seventh overall in this year's draft, had started the first four games.
Last week, Brees finished 23-of-35 for 363 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-17 home cover victory as the 4-point favorites over the 49ers, who New Orleans has now won five straight games against and 8 of the last 10, connecting seven times with Lance Moore for career highs of 101 yards and two touchdowns, and threw a scoring strike to rookie Robert Meachem, who had two receptions for a season-best 99 yards.
The Saints were without injured receiver Marques Colston (thumb) and tight end Jeremy Shockey (abdomen), but Deuce McAllister helped pick up the slack with 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. However, McAllister hasn't been too successful in his career against Minnesota, totaling 50 carries for 210 yards and three TDs in four games.
Key New Orleans Online NFL Betting Trends:
- Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5.
- Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.
- Saints are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Saints are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.
Last week, Minnesota quarterback Gus Frerotte was responsible for one of four costly turnovers in a 30-17 money-dropping road defeat as 3-point underdogs to the Titans, tossing an interception in what was an otherwise strong performance. He went 25-for-43 for 266 yards, but hurt his left, non-throwing hand late in the fourth quarter. Backup Tarvaris Jackson, who was replaced by Frerotte as the starter after Minnesota's 0-2 start, completed one pass for eight yards and was sacked twice. Vikings coach Brad Childress said he plans to stick with Frerotte this week.
Key Minnesota Online NFL Wagering Trends:
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Saints haven't fared well against the Vikings either, losing 17 of 24 regular-season contests, including six of the last seven. Playing at home didn't provide the Saints with much of an advantage last season as they went 3-5 at the Superdome, but they are undefeated in two games there this year.
New Orleans look to remain perfect at home against a Vikings team that has started 1-3 for the second time in three seasons. The Vikings have won their last two visits to New Orleans, including a 38-31 win on Oct. 17, 2004 in their most recent appearance. BetPhoenix NFL odds has New Orleans the 3-point favorites with a game total of 46½.
Key Head-to-Head MNF Betting Trends:
- Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.